Toyota holds the distinction of being the car brand most likely to reach 250,000 miles (approximately 402,000 kilometers), according to a study by US car search site iSeeCars. The analysis, which examined odometer data from over 395 million vehicles, found that Toyota had a 19.7% chance of reaching this milestone, nearly four times the industry average of 5.4%.
Following Toyota, Lexus secured the second position with a 14.4% likelihood, while Honda placed third at 13.3%. Acura rounded out the top four at 9.5%, solidifying Japanese brands’ dominance in the top tier. GMC ranked fifth with 5.8%, marking it as the only other brand to surpass the industry average among the 33 brands surveyed.
The top 10 list also included Mazda, Lincoln, Ram, Ford, and Cadillac, with their chances of reaching 250,000 miles ranging from 5.3% down to 3.9%. For non-luxury brands specifically, the average chance was 5.8%, with Toyota significantly exceeding this at 3.4 times the average and Honda at 2.3 times.
Among other brands, Nissan scored 3.4% and Subaru 2.8%. Mitsubishi, Kia, and Hyundai each had a 0.8% chance, while Mini was given no statistical probability of reaching the benchmark. In the luxury segment, the average was 3.4%, with Lexus leading at 4.2 times this figure and Acura at 2.8 times. Tesla was positioned just below the luxury average at 3.3%, with Mercedes-Benz and Volvo tying at 2.6%. BMW and Audi each recorded 0.5%, Porsche 0.3%, and Jaguar and Maserati had zero probability.
Karl Brauer, executive analyst at iSeeCars, commented that reaching 250,000 miles represents an exceptionally high benchmark for any vehicle. He highlighted that the substantial difference between the top four brands and the rest is therefore highly significant. Brauer also explained that Porsche’s lower figure is likely attributable to owners driving their vehicles less frequently, rather than a deficiency in quality or durability, as luxury car owners typically accumulate fewer miles than those of mainstream models.
The iSeeCars study methodology involved calculating average odometer readings for vehicles at different ages and developing a model to estimate the probability of each vehicle reaching various mileage points. Results for individual models and generations were then averaged across each brand, with weighting applied based on the model’s prevalence on the road. Heavy-duty vans and models with insufficient data were excluded from the analysis. The publication noted that these percentages are statistical estimates and not definitive guarantees, as individual car longevity is influenced by factors such as maintenance, driving habits, road and climate conditions, and accident history.